Six months on, what the market actually did
Dubai's property market did not shrug off the 2026 conflict. It paused, then it came back. If you are weighing a purchase from overseas, that sequence matters more than any slogan about safe havens, so here is what happened in order.
Iranian missile and drone strikes on the UAE began on 28 February 2026, after the American and Israeli attacks on Iran. Over the following six weeks Dubai International Airport was disrupted three times, a tower in Dubai Marina caught fire, and debris fell in residential districts. The UAE government recorded 15 deaths and 246 injuries across 31 nationalities. A ceasefire between the United States and Iran was agreed on 8 April and extended indefinitely on 21 April. The last strike on UAE territory was recorded on 4 May. A memorandum signed in June was meant to close the war formally within 60 days, and it faltered in July. So the fighting has stopped, but nobody should describe the situation as settled.
In the market, March was the trough. Transactions in the first half of the month fell by roughly a quarter compared with the previous fortnight. The ValuStrat price index dropped 5.9% in a single month, according to Khaleej Times. Then the ceasefire landed and the backlog moved. Brokers reported that more mortgage applications were submitted in the first eight days of April than in the whole of March. Allsopp & Allsopp recorded buyer enquiries up 147% week on week and viewings up 198%. April closed with 13,799 transactions worth AED 47.2 billion, up 9% on March by value.
The bigger numbers held up too. The Dubai Land Department reported AED 252 billion of transactions in the first quarter, up 31% on the same period of 2025, with 29,312 new investors entering the market, a 14% increase. The second quarter added AED 169 billion across 51,170 transactions, and June was the strongest month since April with 13,766 sales worth AED 32.66 billion. By August the market was running at 11,601 sales a month worth AED 27.89 billion.
Who left, and who kept buying
It would be dishonest to say nobody sold. Arab News reported in September that some wealthy Pakistani investors have been liquidating Dubai property and moving money into Karachi. Remittances from the UAE to Pakistan rose 13% between February and August. The same report notes that Pakistan's own analysts cannot say how much of that inflow came from property sales, and that part of it reflects a wider shift to formal banking channels. Treat the trend as real but unquantified.
At the same time, the profile of who is buying has shifted upward. In August, sales below AED 2 million fell 16% while registrations above AED 5 million rose 29%, according to DLD figures reported by Arabian Business, and 193 homes changed hands at AED 10 million or more. Off-plan deals made up around three quarters of all sales. The market is being carried by investors with capital and by developer payment plans, not by first-time buyers on tight budgets. That tells you where the competition is, and where it is not.
What a foreign buyer can actually access right now
This is the part that gets buried under market commentary. The financing and residency tools available to overseas buyers did not shrink during the conflict. In two cases they got easier to use.
1. Mortgages without UAE residency
You do not need a residence visa to borrow from a UAE bank. Emirates NBD, Mashreq, HSBC, ADIB and Standard Chartered all lend to non-residents, typically at 50% to 60% of the property value, so you should plan for a deposit of at least 40%. Most banks want a minimum income of around AED 15,000 a month, or the equivalent in your home currency. They also set a minimum property value, usually between AED 500,000 and AED 1 million, and lend to borrowers aged 21 to 65. Documents are what you would expect: passport, proof of income, six months of bank statements, and the sale agreement once you have one. Our non-resident mortgage service walks through the bank-by-bank differences.
2. More borrowing power once you are resident
If you take up residency, the Central Bank's rules allow expats to borrow up to 80% on a first property below AED 5 million and 65% above that. UAE nationals get 85% and 75%. Off-plan is capped at 50% for everyone, which is why developer instalment plans dominate that segment. The expat mortgage page covers eligibility in detail.
3. A residency route with no minimum property value
In April 2026, the Dubai Land Department removed the minimum property value for the two-year investor visa when the applicant is the sole owner. The old floor was AED 750,000. Joint owners now need at least AED 400,000 of equity each. Mortgaged property qualifies. For many overseas buyers this is the practical first step, because it lets you hold residency, open local bank accounts and move to the higher resident loan-to-value ratios without committing AED 2 million.
4. The ten-year Golden Visa, including with a mortgage
Property worth AED 2 million or more, wholly owned in your name, qualifies you for the ten-year Golden Visa. The property can be mortgaged. The bank has to issue a no-objection letter that states the paid amount and the outstanding balance. The test is the value of the property, not how much of it you have paid. We cover the mechanics, the costs and the bank letter in our Golden Visa with a mortgage guide.
5. A banking system that showed it will support borrowers
One thing the conflict did reveal is how the system behaves under stress. The Central Bank launched a support package in March that let banks defer repayments for up to six months without classifying the loan as in default. By early May, AED 6.2 billion of deferrals had been granted to more than 60,000 individuals, 4,300 small businesses and almost 500 companies, according to The National. Dubai also deferred a range of government fees for three months. If you are borrowing here for the first time, that record is worth knowing.
The honest caveats
- The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for the UAE to 3.1%, from 5% in January, before projecting a rebound to 5.3% in 2027. Growth is slower this year, not negative.
- The ceasefire is holding, but the June memorandum that was meant to end the war formally has not been completed. Plan on the basis that headlines will keep arriving.
- Prices are not uniform. REIDIN's citywide average reached AED 1,973 per square foot in April, up 8% on the year, but the sub-AED 2 million segment is soft and some luxury listings trimmed asking prices during March. Buy the specific building and the specific price, not the index.
- Transaction costs are real. Budget 6% to 7% of the price for the 4% Dubai Land Department transfer fee, 0.25% mortgage registration plus AED 290, a bank valuation, a processing fee of up to 1.5% of the loan, and agency commission.
A sensible order of operations
Get a pre-approval before you fly. It takes 24 to 48 hours, costs nothing, and tells you exactly what a UAE bank will lend you as a non-resident. Then shortlist property with a broker who understands your financing limits, because a 60% loan changes which buildings make sense. Decide early whether residency is part of the plan, since it affects both your borrowing power and your visa route. And check the reversion rate on any fixed deal you are offered, not just the headline. Our mortgage calculator will give you a first estimate of monthly payments at non-resident and resident loan sizes.
The people who bought in Dubai during and after the conflict were not gamblers. They were mostly buyers who already knew the tools above and used the pause to negotiate. That option is still open.